My fiendish predictions are beginning to fall into place by mattsteinglass
July 27, 2008, 1:50 am
Filed under: Uncategorized

Matt Yglesias comments on Gallup’s apparent bump in Obama’s lead to 48-41:

Obama’s been drifting in the 45-48 range and McCain’s been drifting in the 41-44 range and there’s no reason to think that movements within the familiar bands represent anything other than normal fluctuation in a statistical sample. I think the commentary on the tracking polls looks more and more like the silly commentary on the daily fluctuations of the Dow where first analysts look at numbers, and then second they devise post hoc explanations of the movement. Realistically, I don’t think there’s anything worth commenting on unless some much more sustained trend develops.

What he fails to realize is that the sustained trend that’s developing here is the trend for the election to turn out exactly as I predicted.

Again, I fully expect anyone who feels like it to call me a big idiot in, let’s see, 12 days when my predictions of 2 days ago turn out to be complete crap.

On another note, I think Gallup is correct to hypothesize that “coverage of Obama’s meetings with the heads of state in France and Germany may have tilted U.S. voter preferences more in his favor,” but it needs to be explained that TV footage of Obama’s appearance with Sarkozy was hugely pro-Obama because he made Sarkozy look incredibly short, and that Sarkozy’s tendency to wave his hands around and purse his lips like Kevin McDonald from Kids in the Hall (“I am crushing your head!”) made Obama look dignified, statesmanlike, and generally reinforced Americans’ sense of being cooler than French people, a sensation which, however misguided, Americans greatly enjoy.

Kevin McDonald from Kids in the Hall shows off his miming skills

Kevin McDonald from Kids in the Hall shows off his miming skills

Nicolas Sarkozy after drinking vodka with Vladimir Putin

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